Frances Caincross cited 30 trends to watch for in the 1980s with the burgeoning new communication technologies on the horizon. With entertainment and Social Media, some of the identified trends are applicable to both genres, others to one or the other, and some not at all, but are overall starkly accurate in the grand reality of technology.
1. Death of Distance
In terms of Social media, this theory describes the state of Social Media to its core. Social Media allows free flowing communication and information sharing throughout the world. There's no related cost to inter- or cross-continental communication, nor is one limited based on where they live, with the exception of autocratic government intervention. Entertainment has benefited from this death of distance, with world citizens having access to all forms and no longer barred from access based on their location (legal or not). The only fallacy in this prediction was the timezones; yes, the world is based in timezones, but it's not particularly centered around three specific areas. Things happen as they happen, where they happen. A lot of business is circumvented around the U.S. and therefore adapted to their time specifications, but I wouldn't put this in the frame of Americas, Europe and Asia/Australia.
2. The Fate of Location
Though this theory is applicable to the world at large, Social Media and Entertainment aren't really a part of the equation. Social Media definitely has a rootless existence, but overall, both Entertainment and Social Media are domestic products.
3. The Irrelevance of Size
Entertainment can be said to have some impact in this arena. Prior technological developments of the last decade, most of entertainment was relegated to be created by large production houses. Technological improvements have allowed equipment to become smaller and less cumbersome in use and the cost has decreased dramatically, enabling individuals and small groups to create high quality content once only made in Hollywood.
4. Improved Connections
Caincross comes across as borderline clairvoyant in this theory. He describes a system of interactive "switches" like the telephone where subscribers can contact each other. He then explicitly says the Internet will adapt to the abilities of the television and the telephone.
Mic-drop. This is exactly what Social Media is and what Entertainment is becoming. Social Media is user-generated content through interaction over the internet. People can do anything, including video conference, with one another through this platform. In terms of TV, it's here: streaming television. Netflix, HULU, Yahoo Screen, Amazon Prime are just the beginning.
5. Customized Content
Another perfectly foreseen conclusion. This second decade of the new millenia can almost be personified as the years of customization. Both Social Media and new Entertainment models are pushing out traditional, singular, fixed models for choice: from cable subscriptions to online streaming, traditional radio to streaming radio, newspapers for social media headlines; what they want when they want it.
6. Deluge of Information
Here, Caincross predicts the influx of businesses into Social Media. Businesses have seized on the Social Media trend to diversify their advertising strategies and attempt to market themselves to a new generation. With ailing traditional media also comes the suffering of advertising revenue and effectiveness, and have now turned to a new resource for "branding".
7. Increased Value of Branding
This theory has some value but also misses the mark a bit. Branding does have a high affinity in this current market, particularly with the changing advertising climate. What he misses is the cost variable. He describes the cost for promotion to stay the same, but he's incorrect; one of the great powers of branding today is, thanks to social media, it can cost NOTHING. Simply having a following and a Twitter page can generate revenue, of which he did correctly predict in identifying the "super-rich" celebrities.
8. Increased Value of Niches
"Niche", while in some arenas has become the common place, is also fought against in others, particularly with Entertainment. Television has become all about the niche, with the concept of "narrowcasting" taking the focus of the medium away from broadcast, large viewership to cable and/or streaming, small, high-intensity fandoms. In film, however, the opposite has become true. Once a market for artistic endeavors, the movie production has become so expensive and less in-demand that niche audience films are not being green-lit. (Buchman, 2014)
The 22 other trends almost all hit on similar notes of strength as the ones assessed here. Some offer greater weaknesses, like 14, which assumes business will become easier and cheaper to start, and 20, where government surveillance is less of an issue and harder to impose. These completely disregard economic and political factors, and, unfortunately, the nature of 9/11 that made government surveillance a hallmark in today's America. Overall, Caincross's predictions contained great foresight and, majority speaking, came to fruition in some form of another and apply greatly to the technological society we've come to live in and enjoy.
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